Price of refrigerant in 2018 is still optimistic

The peak season of demand for refrigerant is in the first quarter. Air-conditioner enterprises stock up and produce in the first quarter so that demand for procurement of refrigerant is increasingly large. Apart from that, high record in the refrigerant market was once set in 2011, and the market at that time was anticipating the coming of five-year great cycle in 2017 when the price was bullish even lost control, intermediary enterprises conducted speculation and stocked up. Thereafter, when the bubble broke, the intermediary enterprises sold their goods in quantities, then the price fell swiftly, de-stocking became thorough and the intermediary enterprises and manufacturers turned to be more prudent. Therefore, it is significantly possible that the suppression factor of inventory does not exist in 2018.

In respect of air-conditioner refrigerant, increase of sale area of real estate in this year gets over the peak, but the trend maintains in a positive way at present. In addition, air-conditioner output goes up in the later cycle of sales of commercial houses, the peak value of speed increase will delay 1 year or so, and delivery and decoration of new houses in next year will drive the demand for air-conditioner refrigerant; in respect of refrigerant for car, developed country is expected to carry out import quotas to propel the stock of refrigerant in future.

With regard to supply, the refrigerant industry is still the key monitoring object of environment protection department due to the emission problem of fluorine-containing ion by-product acid generated in the process of production, small-sized factories for cleaning acid which can absorb the by-product acid in all regions around the country are affected owing to insufficient utilization rate of waste acid and other reasons, and downstream enterprises absorbing by-product are shut down and rectified, which restricts production of refrigerant; although production quota of R22 refrigerant has not been launched in 2018, its reduction trend does not change, meanwhile, leading enterprise tends to purchase the quota, and industry concentration ratio is further enhanced.